Future Scenarios - Borrego Springs & the Salton Sea

What happens at the Salton Sea over the next decade will very likely have a large effect on Borrego Springs, both environmentally and economically.

The biggest immediate concern is air quality. The biggest potential opportunity is economic and tourism spillover from a transformed Salton Sea/Lithium Valley region.

Clearly, the downside Borrego should take most seriously is air quality. This isn't hypothetical. San Diego County's own Borrego Springs Community Plan specifically instructs the community to monitor the Salton Sea because windblown sand and chemical particulates can reach the Borrego Valley.

California's Water Resources Control Board (CARB) says the retreating shoreline creates public-health risks because dust can be emitted from soils containing decades of accumulated agricultural and wastewater material. CARB is now funding research specifically to determine how much Salton Sea dust reaches surrounding communities, what chemicals it contains, and how climate change could alter those exposures. That makes successful Salton Sea restoration directly beneficial to Borrego Springs.

The new Salton Sea Conservancy, launched this year, is particularly important because it creates a permanent state institution charged with restoration, habitat management and air-quality improvement. California is also filling portions of the Species Conservation Habitat project with water and expanding dust-suppression work.

If those efforts stabilize significant areas of exposed playa, Borrego could receive an environmental dividend without spending Borrego groundwater to obtain it. Conversely, if Colorado River cutbacks accelerate the Sea's decline faster than restoration can cover newly exposed playa, Borrego could experience worsening regional particulate pollution. Research modeling the shrinking Sea has projected significant increases in regional PM10 as additional playa is exposed.

While the future is always unknown, here’s where things get interesting. Lithium Valley could change Borrego economically. The Salton Sea is no longer simply an environmental-restoration story. It is increasingly becoming an energy, minerals and infrastructure story. Controlled Thermal Resources (CTR) announced in March a $4.7 billion transaction intended to finance development of its Hell's Kitchen geothermal/lithium project. CTR is targeting 50 MW of electricity by 2028 and 25,000 metric tons of lithium annually by 2029. The technology still has to prove itself commercially, so those targets should not be treated as certain. Meanwhile, another part of the geothermal industry is looking increasingly toward supplying electricity to AI/data centers. If even a substantial portion of those plans materializes, southeastern California could develop something it has never really had before: a significant clean-energy/critical-minerals industrial cluster.

Borrego could become the attractive western gateway to this emerging region. That potentially means more visitors, executives, investors, scientists, journalists, researchers, government officials and environmental organizations moving through the area. Some will want lodging, restaurants, meeting space and recreation without staying at the Salton Sea or an industrial operation.

Borrego could offer precisely what the southern Salton Sea cannot: a beautiful, quiet desert destination next to a state park and protected landscape. Tourism could be the sleeper opportunity. There's another development that hasn't received nearly as much attention. California State Parks is developing a new long-term vision for recreation at the Salton Sea, potentially including more trails, camping, interpretation, wildlife viewing and other forms of public access. A draft general plan is expected in 2027.

Combine that with Anza-Borrego and you could eventually have a much stronger regional tourism proposition. Imagine Borrego Springs, Gateway to the Salton Sea combining desert ecology, geology, energy technology, wildlife, water recreation, and dark skies. More to come as the Borrego Sun considers a number of plausible future scenarios.

References

Borrego Springs CP

Salton Sea Program

What one company’s shift towards data centers says about Imperial County’s lithium industry | KPBS Public Media

More hiking trails, campgrounds could come to the Salton Sea